How Should Churches Plan for a Post-COVID World? - Part 1

“I’m not responsible for COVID-19 coming into this world, but I am responsible for how I decide to respond to a world that has it.” - Michael Ramsden, President of RZIM

Part 1: A Lesson from the Marketplace

 The country is showing signs of reopening, but honestly, it feels a lot like the blind leading the blind. No one knows exactly what they are doing. Church and ministry leaders are cautiously making plans for how we will gather when we are once again allowed to. 

As we seek God’s guidance for how to love our congregations and communities well in a post-”Safer At Home” world, we need to learn from those who have traveled further down the road we are headed.

The Boston Consulting Group, a leader in business strategy and management consulting, has worked with a number of well-known global businesses in recent months as they are trying to navigate the changing social and economic landscape. Through their work, they have seen a number of common themes emerge. While their focus is on business and enterprise, what they have found is incredibly applicable to churches and ministries alike. 

Let’s take a look at what they have found, and how pastors and ministry leaders can use their information to inform a rough road map for a post-COVID-19 terrain.

First, a synopsis of their report

(Stick with us because the application will be worth it.)

 Many leaders in the marketplace are asking the same set of questions, like how they should forecast their revenues, when will this all be over, and when will things return to normal. But the reality is that it is not yet time to ask those questions. Why?

There is still too much uncertainty. No one knows yet what life will look like a year from now, so efforts are better spent shaping various scenarios and using those scenarios to create a plan of action (or several plans). Now that we are several months into the pandemic crisis, we are starting to see patterns from across the world. Those patterns suggest the pandemic will play out over three phases:

Flatten → Fight → Future

First comes the “Flatten” phase, where countries or regions shut down in order to flatten the growing spread of the virus. Next comes the “Fight” phase where the local population attempts to restart their life and economy while still keeping the curve flat. This phase carries with it the possibility that a region may need to return to the first phase should cases begin to rise again. And finally, the “Future” phase, which only comes into play once a vaccine or effective treatment has proven successful.

Most of the U.S. is just now attempting to enter the “Fight” phase so what should we know about the 2nd phase?

• The 2nd phase will likely last 12-36 months, which is much longer than most realize

• It will be expensive

• This phase will be volatile due to shaken consumer and worker confidence

• The characteristics of this phase will vary by geography

• The future trajectory of how long this phase lasts will depend on social and economic policy being enacted now

• There will be a lot of fear of future shutdowns

• It will be a long period of time before there is full public confidence in gatherings, work places, retail, travel and public spaces including schools and churches

• A sizeable portion of the economy will still be restricted

• Unemployment will likely continue to increase

• There will be a sharp contraction in spending

• We won’t enter the “Future” phase til economic activity has been full restored

Okay, great. There is direct and clear application for businesses from this information as they think through rebuilding production, staffing, and so on. But what does this have to do with churches? And maybe a better question is how can churches and ministries use this information to plan for various scenarios? How can they use this data to provide trustworthy leadership to our communities through this uncharted territory?

In our next post, we’ll consider together how this information can help us anticipate the experiences, needs, hurts, and triumphs of our congregations. We’ll ask how we might need to be proactive in changing how we’ve always done things to live on mission in a “new normal.”